Climate tipping might be predicted using algebraic topology

The Earth's climate system seems to have shifted abruptly between colder and warmer modes in the past. Do we risk the same today from anthropogenic climate change? Frankly, climate models cannot answer that question yet. But a result in the journal Chaos by Gisela D. Charó, Mickaël D. Chekroun, Denisse Sciamarella and Michael Ghil suggests a way to resolve the matter. Analyzing a model that combines the two leading theories for climate change with algebraic topology tools, the authors show that the climate system indeed progresses through abrupt transitions, also known as tipping points. These tools are applicable to reduced climate models and they well might help assess whether the Earth's climate system on a whole is about to tip due to global warming. The work is part of the TiPES project, a European science collaboration on tipping points in the Earth system.

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